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Airton Risk Management Reveals the Probabilities Behind the World Cup

Thu 5th Jun 2014 | Money & Finance

The FIFA World Cup is as much about off-pitch events as playing news and this summer’s spectacle looks set to be equally compelling.

The public has come to expect a build-up to the tournament that is filled with speculation and anticipation, so the team from Airton Risk Management, a division of Paddy Power PLC, has looked at what surprises Brazil 2014 has to offer.

 

  • Unsurprisingly the issues of penalties looms large although this year it is good news as there is only a 14% chance that this will be the cause of the team’s exit from the competition
  • Not only does Roy Hodgson have heat and distance to cope with, it appears discipline is likely to be a big issue for the squad, with a 56% chance of an England player being sent off in one of the games
  • The revolving door on the manager’s office isn’t restricted to English football, as there is a 10% chance of a team boss being fired during the tournament. Strangely these are the same odds punters can expect for Luis Suarez sinking his teeth into someone and getting a FIFA disciplinary
  • For people with an eye on the Golden Boot, current expectations set the likely recipients as being Messi (16%), Neymar (10%) Aguero (8%) or Ronaldo (7%)
  • In the light of recent allegations of corruption at FIFA, fans getting their hopes up for a change at the top should think again, the chances of Sepp Blatter resigning as President during the tournament are a measly 4% - only slightly higher than England’s chances of walking off with the trophy

 

Rod O’Callaghan, Director of Airton Risk Management, explained ‘Our business is all about working out the possibilities and probabilities but, when it comes to sport, for the sake of fans we hope that the team’s talents fly in the face of our statistics.’

 

Posted by: Aaron Gourley 

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