Researchers at top football statistics reviewer suggests Manchester City will beat Liverpool in the English Premier League title race.

Research conducted by CIES Football Observatory analysed the pitch production of the big-5 league clubs during the first part of the current season to highlight if they have over- or under-performed in terms of points achieved.

Manchester City achieved so far 5% of points per match less than expected according to its pitch production. Conversely, Liverpool obtained 15% more and its results are supposed to decline in the second part of the season.

The over- or under-performance were calculated according to a regression model built on the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons including shots on target, ball possession and shots conceded from the box. The data was provided by specialist company InStat.

In the other big-5 leagues, the pitch production of three out of four teams at the top of the table should allow them to lift the trophy: Barcelona in Spain, Juventus in Italy and Paris St-Germain in France.

However, in Germany, the analysis suggests that Bayern Munich will outrank current leaders Borussia Dortmund. 

More data is also accessible in the exclusive CIES Football Observatory Performance Atlas.

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