Aston Villa and Derby County will go head-to-head in the Championship Play-Off final on Monday - billed as the most lucrative one-off match in world football.

According to analysis from Deloitte’s Sports Business Group, promotion to the Premier League for either club will see an increase in revenue of at least £170m, rising to a minimum of £300m if they avoid relegation in their first season.

Dan Jones, partner and head of the Sports Business Group at Deloitte, commented: “This year’s final sees two clubs, who have both endured play-off defeats in recent years, fighting for a place in the financially-lucrative Premier League. This winner-takes-all clash will once again be a great advertisement for the Championship, with the winner guaranteed to see a significant boost to their revenues.

“The UEFA Champions League Final may draw the bigger worldwide audience of the two games but with Liverpool and Tottenham already assured of Champions League football next season, and a comparatively small bonus of £6.6m for the winner, the guaranteed financial reward on offer in North London is significantly higher than that in Madrid.”

This £170m incremental revenue is a combination of extra revenue they will earn from playing in the Premier League in 2019/20 (at least an extra c.£95m, mostly from broadcast and commercial revenue generated from the Premier League). If the promoted club is relegated in 2020, they will receive parachute payments in 2020/21 and 2021/22 totalling c.£75m.

However, this figure will rise to at least c.£300m if the promoted club survives their first season in the Premier League. In the last 10 seasons, up to and including 2018/19, 19 (63%) of the 30 promoted clubs avoided relegation in their first top-flight season. The 2017/18 season was the first in six years where all three of the promoted clubs avoided first-year relegation, but only Wolverhampton Wanderers managed this in the 2018/19 season.

Sam Boor, Senior Manager at Deloitte’s Sports Business Group, added: “The financial prize for Aston Villa or Derby County, as well as Norwich City and Sheffield United, is likely to reach £300m if they survive the first season in the Premier League.

“Furthermore, any club that enjoys a sustained period of participation in the Premier League could be expected to challenge for a place in the top 30 of the Deloitte Football Money League of the highest earning clubs in world football.

“Promotion to the Premier League provides clubs with the financial resources to make strategic investments both on and off the pitch, and, given the relatively equal distribution of revenue amongst Premier League clubs, it provides promoted clubs with a chance to avoid relegation when they get there.

“However, significant investment in playing talent in an attempt to retain Premier League status is risky and does not guarantee safety. Recent seasons have seen some promoted clubs survive after restrained spending, while others have gone down despite big spending.”

Fulham, who beat Aston Villa in the 2018 Play-off final and Cardiff City were both relegated after one season in the Premier League, receiving £101m and £102m respectively from the league’s central distribution of TV revenues which was revealed yesterday. Wolverhampton Wanderers, who finished 7^th in the Premier League, earned £127m from TV distributions.

Head to Head

Figures obtained from www.transfermarkt.co.uk

Image: PA Images