Is The Premier League Becoming Less Unpredictable?

Recent seasons have led to a raging debate on whether the Premier League is losing some of its famed unpredictability.

With Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City dominating the league in recent years, it’s been a while since any other team mounted a serious title challenge.

Despite intense battles for European qualification, the top and bottom of the table have become increasingly predictable, raising concerns about growing inequality across the league.

Newly promoted clubs have developed a habit of suffering an immediate drop, with the last two seasons seeing all the newcomers finish in the bottom three.

Meanwhile, final league positions heavily influence transfer activity, often diminishing the spending power of clubs that miss out on European qualification, not to mention relinquishing the top-flight status.

According to Spreadex Sports, next season’s standings won’t differ much from the 2024/25 table, with the usual suspects expected to maintain their hold.

Manchester United are the only exception, with the report predicting a drastic improvement in Ruben Amorim’s first full season in charge following a disastrous 15th-place finish last term.

What does it mean?

The Red Devils have become known for erratic spending over the past decade, as the club’s desperate attempt to restore glory days at Old Trafford has failed to deliver any lasting success.

For instance, United splashed out a staggering £182.5 million in 2024/25 without winning a trophy, alongside their worst finish in the Premier League era.

A season without European football will derail Man Utd’s spending this summer, even though Amorim’s men have been active in the transfer market.

Per The Athletic, Brentford have given the Old Trafford club a ‘tight’ deadline to complete the signing of sought-after winger Bryan Mbeumo amid Tottenham Hotspur’s attempt to hijack the deal.

As such, Amorim can already start feeling the consequences of limited funds and obligations to operate under the infamous ‘Profit and Sustainability’ rules.

However, this predicament is not unique to United. Indeed, several Premier League clubs face similar financial constraints and competitive pressures in the current transfer market.

Like Man Utd, Aston Villa can forget about splashing big money this summer as they must balance ambition with financial prudence after failing to secure Champions League qualification.

As a result, Spreadex expects Unai Emery’s charges to comfortably finish outside the top four next term.

What about ‘small’ clubs?

If missing out on Europe’s top competitions is a setback for big clubs, so-called ‘smaller’ clubs often encounter even bigger obstacles, grappling with reduced revenue and increased threat of relegation.

It’s been three years since the last newcomer maintained their elite status, highlighting a growing gap between permanent Premier League fixtures and promoted clubs.

Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town never stood a chance in 2024/25 despite making substantial financial sacrifices to compete with established top-flight sides.

For perspective, the Saints ended the season at the bottom of the table with the all-time second-lowest 12 points despite spending £98.9m on squad reinforcements last summer.

As for 18th-placed Leicester, they finished a whopping 13 points adrift of 17th-placed Tottenham, rendering their lavish summer spending futile.

Back to the Premier League after nearly a decade, Sunderland will hope to avoid the same fate, with the Black Cats working around the clock to strengthen their ranks.

Journalist Sacha Tavolieri claims they’re on the verge of signing prodigious winger Chemsedine Talbi from Club Brugge for a reported fee of £19.3m.

That’s no small investment, especially when some elite clubs across Europe’s other top five leagues struggle to afford similar deals without first offloading key first-team stars.

Even that wouldn’t guarantee their survival, with Spreadex anticipating a 26-point landmark as the ceiling of Regis Le Bris’ side’s ambitions in 2025/26. 

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