On Course For Six English Clubs To Qualify For Next Season’s Champions League
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur moved a step closer to the Europa League final with commanding victories in their semi-final first legs on Thursday night.
United cruised to a 3-0 win away at Athletic Bilbao — the host city for this year’s final — while Spurs earned a 3-1 triumph over Bodo/Glimt in London. According to BetWright, United now have a 97% chance of progressing to the final, with Tottenham at 91%, making an all-English showdown 88% likely.
If both sides make it, it will mark just the sixth time two English teams have contested a major European final — and the third time Spurs have featured. More significantly, it would also mean six English clubs qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
Manchester United’s dominant 3-0 victory over Athletic Club — currently fourth in La Liga — was a statement performance, and they’ll look to seal the deal back at Old Trafford next week with the comfort of home advantage.
Tottenham, meanwhile, might not feel quite as secure. Concerns over injuries to James Maddison and Dominic Solanke have added a layer of uncertainty heading into the second leg.
Bodo/Glimt, known for their formidable home form, pose a real threat in the return fixture. The Norwegian side has a 70% Europa League win rate at home since the start of the 2022-23 season, compared to just 9% away — and with key players set to return, Spurs can expect a tougher challenge in the Arctic.
Manchester United and Tottenham’s underwhelming domestic campaigns could set a new low bar for Europa League success. Should both clubs reach the final while maintaining their current mid-table Premier League positions, the eventual winner would become the lowest-ranked domestic side to lift the trophy in over 15 years.
Since the Europa League’s rebranding in 2009-10, no team finishing below 12th in their domestic league has reached — let alone won — the final. The current benchmark is Sevilla, who won the title in 2023 while finishing 12th in La Liga, and Fulham, who reached the final in 2010 with the same league finish.
This season also marks the first under UEFA’s revamped league-phase format, eliminating the traditional pathway for third-placed Champions League teams to drop into the Europa League — theoretically making the road to the final more competitive.
For context, when West Ham won the Europa Conference League in 2023, they did so despite a 14th-place Premier League finish, underlining just how rare deep European runs are for clubs outside the top half domestically.
Winning the Europa League secures automatic qualification for the following season’s Champions League, regardless of domestic league position—an essential lifeline for both Manchester United and Tottenham.
A potential all-English final between the two would guarantee one of them a return to Europe’s elite competition and the financial windfall that comes with it. It’s a crucial opportunity, especially given their current Premier League struggles—United sit in 14th and Spurs in 16th, both over 20 points adrift of fifth place.
Without lifting the Europa League trophy, neither club would feature in any European competition next season.
Importantly, their Europa League success wouldn’t impact other English clubs. The Premier League is already assured five Champions League spots next season, thanks to strong performances by English teams in Europe this term.
The possibility of having 6 teams competing in the champions league next season, highlights the competitive nature of the Premier League. With teams currently sat in the bottom half of the table still able to make it to the semi finals of the Europa league highlights the depth of talent currently on display throughout the premier league.
